The potential cutback in Fed bond buying has caused major pressure on emerging market currencies and MoneyShow's Jim Jubak explains the implications for investors.
As crises go, the Bernanke Bubble/emerging markets meltdown doesn't come close to layman or anything like that, but it is a major vent for the markets and it's still developing, so for the week ahead I'm going to try to tell you what to watch.
Okay, here's what's going on. When the fed and other central banks did their big quantitative easing programs, they produced a lot of money by buying treasuries and other bonds to put that into the market. Not all that stayed in the United States. In fact, a lot of it didn't because people were looking for higher rates, so in 2012, about 1,200,000,000,000 of that, in fact, went into emerging markets. Now the fed has said they're going to taper off this program. No one knows exactly when. Money is coming back to the United States and leaving the emerging markets. So far in 2013 we've had about, just using ETFs, electronically traded funds, as an example, we've had about 95,000,000,000 float into US stock ETFs and about 8,400,000,000 flow out of emerging markets, so that gives a sense that the cash flow has reversed. This is a problem because it also means that you've got money coming out of countries with big current account deficits. They need the inflow of foreign capital to balance it. Turkey needs about $5,000,000,000 a month, not getting it right now. That puts the pressure on currencies such as the Turkish lira, the Indian rupee, and the Indonesian rupiah. All these currencies are under pressure. They're sinking like a stone. Some of them are back to where they were in 2009. Some of them are back even further. As those currencies fall, it means that you've got a possibility of inflation in those countries because imported goods are more expensive.
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: Home BancShares Inc.(HOMB)
Home BancShares, Inc. operates as a holding company for the Centennial Bank that provides various commercial and retail banking, and related financial products and services to businesses, real estate developers, investors, individuals, and municipalities. It offers various deposit products, including checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, commercial and industrial, residential real estate, agricultural, and consumer loans. In addition, it provides Internet banking and voice response information, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit boxes, the United States savings bonds, and automatic account transfers services. Further, the company provides trust services focusing on personal trusts, corporate trusts, and employee benefit trusts, as well as writes insurance policies for commercial and personal lines of businesses. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 49 branches in Arkansas, 9 branches in the Florida Keys, 6 branches in central Florida, 3 branches in southwest Florida, and 29 branches in the Florida Panhandle. Home BancShares, Inc. is headquartered in Conway, Arkansas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Sean Williams]
What: Shares of Home BancShares (NASDAQ: HOMB ) , the holding company of Centennial Bank, jumped as much as 13% after receiving an analyst upgrade.
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: M.D.C. Holdings Inc. (MDC)
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding and financial services businesses in the United States. Its homebuilding business activities include the purchase of finished lots or development of lots for the construction and sale of single-family detached homes to first-time and first-time move-up homebuyers under the Richmond American Homes name. The company�s financial services business activities comprise the origination of mortgage loans primarily for homebuyers; provision of third-party insurance products to homebuyers; and title agency services to homebuyers in Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and Virginia. It also provides insurance coverage on homes sold and for work performed in completed subdivisions; and re-insures the claims. M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Rich Smith]
Upping MDC Holdings to buy
Before moving on to the bad news, let's start with some good. Investment banker KeyBanc Capital Markets thinks that in view of the broad strength in housing stocks lately, it's time to revisit the sector, take some winnings off the table, and move a bit of that money into stocks with perhaps a bit more potential to keep growing. It's choice today: MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC ) . - [By Charley Blaine]
Among the losers: AIG, down 6.9 percent; gold-miner Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), down 4.7 percent; and homebuilder M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE: MDC), down 1.37 percent.
- [By John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer, Al Frank Asset Management, Inc. (AFAM)]
MDC Holdings (MDC) is a builder and seller of homes in California, Colorado, Maryland, Virginia, Arizona, and Nevada under the name Richmond American Homes, and an originator of mortgage loans for home buyers.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Combine that with an ever-so-slightly lower 10-year yield and you have a recipe for a housing rally. Hovnanian has gained 2.8% to $5.18, but that was nothing compared to other gainers today. PulteGroup (PHM) has jumped 8.1% to $16.73, MDC Holdings (MDC) has risen 7% to $29.59, D.R. Horton (DHI) has climbed 6.6% to $19.30 and the Ryland Group (RYL) is up 5.9% at $37.98.
Hot Machinery Companies To Watch For 2015: StoneMor Partners L.P.(STON)
StoneMor Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of cemeteries in the southeast, northeast, and west regions of the United States. It offers funeral and cemetery products and services in the death care industry. The company sells interment rights, caskets, burial vaults, cremation niches, markers, and other cemetery related merchandise; provides opening and closing that is the digging and refilling of burial spaces to install the vault and place the casket into the vault; and various other services, including the installation of other cemetery merchandise and the perpetual care related to interment rights. It also offers various funeral-related services, such as family consultation, the removal of and preparation of remains, and the use of funeral home facilities for visitation. As of December 31, 2011, it operated 274 cemeteries, including 253 own cemeteries in 26 states and Puerto Rico; and owned and operated 69 funeral homes in 18 states and Puerto Rico. StoneMor GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. StoneMor Partners L.P. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Levittown, Pennsylvania.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Dr. Kent Moors]
Of course, there are some exceptions. My favorite outlier, about as non-oil and gas as you can get, is StoneMor Partners LP (NYSE: STON). StonMor is an MLP that manages cemeteries... and it pays a 9.5% yield!
- [By Shauna O'Brien]
On Friday, cemetery operator StoneMor Partners L.P. (STON) reported that its net loss for the fourth quarter narrowed from last year, aided by a 6.4% rise in revenue.STON’s Earnings in Brief
STON reported a Q4 net loss of�$3.5 million, compared to a loss of $3.9 million a year ago. Revenue was�$63.1 million, up from $59.3 million last year. For FY2013, the company reported a net loss of�$19.0 million, compared to a loss of $3.0 million in 2012. �The large loss in 2013 was primarily due to�costs related to the early retirement of senior notes. Revenue for the year rose to $246.6 million in 2013, from�$242.6 million in 2012.CEO Commentary
Lawrence Miller, President and CEO of STON commented: “StoneMor closed the year with a solid fourth quarter, showing improvement over the fourth quarter of 2012 in nearly every category,” s
“GAAP revenues and operating income in the fourth quarter of 2013 both improved over the fourth quarter of last year, while such non-GAAP financial measures as production based revenue and adjusted operating profits showed very strong growth, up 17.4% and 73.1% respectively. Driving much of this performance has been the ongoing contributions from acquisitions made in 2012 and 2013. The contributions from acquisitions also helped power a 75.9% increase in our distributable cash flow (non-GAAP) compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.
STON’s Dividend
STON paid its last 60 cent quarterly dividend on February 14. We expect the company to announce its next dividend in April.
�Stock Performance�
StoneMor Partners shares were mostly flat during premarket trading Friday. The stock is down 3.8% YTD.
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: Value Line Inc (VALU)
Value Line, Inc., incorporated on October 29, 1982, is engaged in producing investment periodicals and related publications and making available copyright data, including certain Ranking System and other information, to third parties under written agreements for use in third-party managed and marketed investment products. The Company operates in two segments: investment periodicals and related publications. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013 (fiscal 2013), the Company�� Wholly-owned operating subsidiaries include Value Line Publishing LLC, Vanderbilt Advertising Agency, Compupower Corporation (CPWR) and Value Line Distribution Center (VLDC). The Company markets under brands including Value Line, the Value Line Logo, The Value Line Investment Survey and The Most Trusted Name in Investment Research.
Investment Related Periodicals and Publications
The investment periodicals and related publications offered by Value Line Publishing LLC (VLP) covers a spectrum of investments, including stocks, mutual funds, options and convertible securities. The services generally fall into four categories include Comprehensive reference periodical publications; Targeted, niche periodical newsletters, and Current and historical financial databases. The services (The Value Line Investment Survey, The Value Line Investment Survey - Small and Mid-Cap, The Value Line 600, and The Value Line Fund Advisor Plus) provide both statistical and text coverage of a number of investment securities, with a focus placed on Value Line's research, analysis and statistical ranks. The Value Line Investment Survey is the Company's premier service, published each week and covering approximately 1,700 stocks.
The newsletters (The Value Line Special Situations Service, The Value Line Fund Advisor, The Value Line Convertibles Survey and The Value Line Options Survey) provide information on securities. The Company offers online versions of its products at the Company's Website, www.valueline.com. T! he Value Line Investment Survey is an investment periodical research product providing both timely articles on economic, financial and investment matters and analysis and ranks for equity securities. The Value Line Investment Survey is an investment periodical research product providing both timely articles on economic, financial and investment matters and analysis and ranks for equity securities. The Value Line Investment Survey - Small and Mid-Cap is an investment research product that provides short descriptions of and data for approximately 1,800 small and medium-capitalization stocks.
Value Line Investment Analyzer is a menu-driven software program with filtering, ranking, reporting and graphing capabilities utilizing over 350 data fields for range of industries and indices and for the approximately 1,700 stocks covered in VLP's publication, The Value Line Investment Survey. Value Line Investment Analyzer allows subscribers to apply more than 60 charting and graphing variables for comparative research. Value Line Mutual Fund Survey for Windows is a monthly CD-ROM or Internet product with weekly Internet updates. The program features powerful sorting and filtering analysis tools. It includes features, such as style attribution analysis, a portfolio stress tester, portfolio rebalancing, correlation of fund returns and hypothetical assets. For the Company's institutional customers, Value Line offers both current and historical data for equities, mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and convertibles.
Value Line's Fundamental DataFile I contains fundamental data (both current and historical) on approximately 6,400 publicly traded companies that follow United States generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Estimates and Projections DataFile offering contains the estimates from Value Line analysts on approximately 1,700 companies. Data includes earnings, sales, cash flow, book value, margin, and other popular fields. Projections are for the future one year, three ! year and ! five year periods. The Value Line Mutual Fund DataFile, covers more than 20,000 mutual funds with up to 20 years of historical data with more than 200 data fields. The Mutual Fund DataFile provides monthly pricing, basic fund information, weekly performance data, sector weights, and many other popular mutual fund data fields. The Value Line Research Center provides on-line access to select Company investment research products covering stocks, mutual funds, options and convertible securities, as well as special situation stocks.
Copyright Data Fees Programs
The Company has copyright data, which include certain ranking system information and other information used in third party products, such as unit investment trusts, variable annuities, managed accounts and exchange traded funds, which it distributes under copyright data agreements. The Company�� primary copyright data products have been structured as unit investment trusts, ETFs, annuity products and other types of managed products.
Investment Management Services
The Company through its wholly-owned subsidiary ESI, was the distributor for the Value Line Funds. State Street Bank is the custodian of the assets of the Value Line Funds and provides them with fund accounting and administrative services. Shareholder services for the Value Line Funds are provided by Boston Financial Data Services, an affiliate of State Street Bank.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Geoff Gannon]
If a company has an at risk business, it can allocate capital to other areas. Many successful companies no longer engage in the business they started in. If American Express (AXP) stayed in its original business, it wouldn't be around today. The same is true of IBM, MMM, and BRK.B. Some companies choose to pay large dividends or buy back stock while the business is failing rather than allocating capital into a different industry. Let's look at Value Line (VALU). Over the last 10 years, Value Line has paid out about 85% of the company's current market cap. It's a dying business. It had a decision to make. It could allocate capital to new areas inside the corporation, it could pay dividends, or it could buyback stock. It chose to pay dividends.
- [By Geoff Gannon] be cheap enough. It was an issue of Warren Buffett being confident enough to invest in IBM.
By the way, let�� look at IBM�� past record:
10-Year Average Return on Assets: 10.3%
10-Year Annual Sales Growth: 2.8%
10-Year Annual Asset Growth: 1.9%
As you can see, IBM isn�� much of a growth company. But that doesn�� mean the shares can�� be growth shares. IBM has improved margins and bought back stock. That has led to a 20% annual increase in earnings per share compared to just a 3% annual increase in total revenue.
So can we answer the question of why Warren Buffett is interested in companies like IBM and Norfolk Southern (NSC) rather than Hewlett-Packard and Value Line?
Well, Value Line is obviously too small an investment for Buffett. But we��e using it as a stand in for all the publishers Buffett once loved but now shuns.
Buffett is a return on investment investor. He isn�� exactly a growth investor or a value investor ��if by growth we mean total revenue growth and if by value we mean the company�� value as of today.
Buffett wants to compound his money at the fastest rate possible. So he looks at how much of the company�� sales, assets, etc. he is getting. Basically, he looks at a price ratio. And then he looks into the company�� return on its own sales, assets, etc. When you take those two numbers together you get something very close to a rate of return.
The last part you need to consider is the change in assets versus the change in sales (and earnings). Does the company need to grow assets faster than earnings?
Or ��like See�� Candy ��can it grow sales a little faster than assets?
Let�� take a look at Norfolk Southern as a good example of the kind of railroad Buffett would own ��if he didn�� own all of Burlington Northern.
Norfolk Southern
10-Year Average Return on Assets: 4.9%
10-Year Annual Sales Growth: 6.0%
10-Year Annual Asset Gr
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM)
EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM), incorporated on December 18, 2002, is a global information technology (IT) services provider focused on software product development services, software engineering and vertically-oriented custom development solutions. EPAM has been serving independent software vendors (ISVs), and technology companies. These companies produce advanced software and technology products that demand software engineering talent, tools, methodologies and infrastructure to deliver solutions. Its service offerings cover the full software development lifecycle from complex software development services through maintenance and support, custom application development, application testing, enterprise application platforms and infrastructure management. Its key service offerings include software product development services, custom application development services, application testing services, enterprise application platforms, application maintenance and support and infrastructure management services. In December 2012, the Company acquired Empathy Lab.
Software Product Development Services
EPAM provides a set of software product development services, including product research, design and prototyping, product development, component design and integration, full lifecycle software testing, product deployment and end-user customization, performance tuning, product support and maintenance, as well as porting and cross-platform migration. The Company focuses on development services for enterprise software products covering a range of business applications, as well as product development for multiple mobile platforms and embedded software product services.
Custom Application Development Services
EPAM offers custom application development services. The Company�� range of services includes business and technical requirements analysis, solution architecture creation and validation, development, component design and integration, quality assurance and testing, d! eployment, performance tuning, support and maintenance, legacy applications re-engineering/refactoring, porting and cross-platform migration and documentation.
Application Testing Services
The Company�� application testing services include software application testing, including test automation tools and frameworks, and testing for enterprise IT, including test management, automation, functional and non-functional testing, as well as defect management. It also includes and consulting services focused on helping clients improve their existing software testing and quality assurance practices.
Enterprise Application Platforms
As a provider of software product development services to ISVs, EPAM has developed industry standard technology and business application platforms and their components in such areas as customer relationship management and sales automation, enterprise resource planning, enterprise content management, business intelligence, e-commerce, mobile, Software-as-a-Service and cloud deployment. The Company offers services around Enterprise Application Platforms, which include requirements analysis and platform selection, deep and complex customization, cross-platform migration, implementation and integration, as well as support and maintenance.
Application Maintenance and Support
EPAM delivers application maintenance and support services. The Company�� application maintenance and support offerings meet rigorous CMMI and SAS 70 Type II requirements. Its services include incident management, fault investigation diagnosis, work-around provision, application bug fixes, release management, application enhancements and third-party maintenance.
Infrastructure Management Services
EPAM service offerings cover infrastructure management services. The Company has implemented large infrastructure monitoring solutions, providing real-time notification and control from the low-level infrastructure up! to and i! ncluding applications. Its solutions cover the lifecycle of infrastructure management, including application, database, network, server, storage and systems operations management, as well as incident notification and resolution.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Seth Jayson]
EPAM Systems (NYSE: EPAM ) reported earnings on May 9. Here are the numbers you need to know.
The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), EPAM Systems met expectations on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII)
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs ships primarily for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. It offers nuclear-powered ships, such as aircraft carriers and submarines; and non-nuclear ships, including surface combatants, expeditionary warfare/amphibious assault, coastal defense surface ships, and national security cutters, as well as engages in the refueling and overhaul, and inactivation of nuclear-powered ships. The company also operates as a full-service systems provider for the design, engineering, construction, and life cycle support of major programs for surface ships; and a provider of fleet support and maintenance services for the U.S. Navy. In addition, it provides a range of support services, including fabrication, construction, equipment, and technical services, as well as product sales to commercial nuclear power plants, fossil power plants, and other industrial facilities, as well as government customers. The company is based in Newport News, Virginia.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Roberto Pedone]
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is engaged in building, overhauling and repairing ships, mainly for the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Coast Guard. This stock closed up 1% at $64.11 in Friday's trading session.
Friday's Volume: 297,000
Three-Month Average Volume: 211,441
Volume % Change: 50%From a technical perspective, HII trended modestly higher here right above some near-term support levels at $62.13 to $61.74 with above-average volume. This move also pushed shares of HII into breakout territory, since the stock took out and closed above its previous 52-week high at $63.99.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in HII as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $62.13 or above $61.74 and then once it sustains a move or close above Friday's high of $64.14 with volume that hits near or above 211,441 shares. If we get that move soon, then HII will set up to enter new 52-week -igh territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $70 to $72.
- [By CRWE]
Huntington Ingalls Industries (NYSE:HII) reported that its Ingalls Shipbuilding division has been awarded an $83.3 million cost-plus-award-fee contract from the U.S. Navy for continued life-cycle engineering, modernization and support services on the U.S. Navy’s fleet of USS Ticonderoga-class (CG 47) Aegis guided missile cruisers.
- [By Victor Selva]
The firm is currently Zacks Rank # 2 ��Buy, and it also has a longer-term recommendation of ��eutral.��For investors looking for a better Zacks Rank, Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII) could be the option.
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: Target Corporation(TGT)
Target Corporation operates general merchandise stores in the United States. The company offers household essentials, including pharmacy, beauty, personal care, baby care, cleaning, and paper products; hardlines comprising music, movies, books, computer software, sporting goods, and toys, as well as electronics that comprise video game hardware and software; apparel and accessories consisting of apparel for women, men, boys, girls, toddlers, infants, and newborns; and intimate apparel, jewelry, accessories, and shoes. It also provides food and pet supplies, including dry grocery, dairy, frozen food, beverages, candy, snacks, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and pet supplies; and home furnishings and d�or, such as furniture, lighting, kitchenware, small appliances, home d�or, bed and bath, home improvement, and automotive products, as well as seasonal merchandise, which include patio furniture and holiday d�or. The company sells its merchandise products under private-labe l and exclusive licensed brands. In addition, it provides in-store amenities. As of January 28, 2012, Target Corporation operated 1,763 stores in 49 states and the District of Columbia under Target and SuperTarget names. Further, it offers general merchandise through its Website, Target.com. The company distributes its merchandise through a network of distribution centers, as well as third parties and direct shipping from vendors. Additionally, it offers credit to guests through its branded proprietary credit cards, the Target Visa Credit Card and the Target Credit Card, as well as through its branded proprietary Target Debit Card. Target Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of JC Penney traded down as much as 3.7% this morning, but are up 1.2% at $7.95 at 10:08 a.m. They’ve also bucked the government shutdown-related weakness in other broadline retailers, whose businesses could get hurt if consumer confidence takes a hit. Macy’s (M), for instance, has dropped 1.9% to $43.25, Wal-Mart (WMT) has fallen 1% to $72.05, Target (TGT) has declined 0.5% to $63.12 and Costco (COST) is off 0.7% to $113.65.
- [By Rick Munarriz]
It's better to be Wal-Mart than J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ) , which saw its sales plunge 25% in a rudderless attempt to re-establish its retail identity. Smaller rival Target (NYSE: TGT ) bears the "cheap chic" label, but it matched Wal-Mart's 5% pop on the top line this past year.
- [By Charles Sizemore]
Target (TGT) can�� seem to do much right these days.
The�Target CEO resigned in disgrace as the fallout from the credit card security breach last year continues to build. Sales are down�at TGT, as customers have been timid about swiping their cards at Target, fearing their data could be compromised again. And Target�� expansion into Canada 14 months ago has proven to be an unmitigated disaster f0r TGT stock, generating roughly a billion dollars in losses so far.
Top Up And Coming Companies To Invest In Right Now: iSoftStone Holdings Limited(ISS)
iSoftStone Holdings Limited provides various information technology (IT) services and solutions in the Greater China and internationally. It offers an integrated suite of IT services and solutions, including consulting and solution services, IT services, and business process outsourcing (BPO) services. The company provides a range of consulting services for an overall engagement or discrete consulting services in conjunction with other services. It also develops industry-specific solutions, including treasury management, cash management, property and casualty insurance core, financial holding company business analysis, trust company core, and banking risk management solutions for banking, financial services, and insurance industries; supply chain management, enterprise information portals, business intelligence, business process integration, and management and e-commerce solutions for energy, transportation, and public sectors; mobile and embedded technology, next generati on platforms, business intelligence functionality, and network security products for the communications industry. In addition, the company offers various IT services consisting of application development and maintenance, research and development, and infrastructure and software services. Further, it provides a range of BPO services, such as securities trade processing services for the investment banking industry; digitization and archiving of policyholder information, as well as account processing and customer service for insurance industry; and cross-industry BPO services comprising finance and accounting, customer care, and human resources. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Seth Jayson]
iSoftStone Holdings (NYSE: ISS ) reported earnings on May 17. Here are the numbers you need to know.
The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), iSoftStone Holdings beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.
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